1. Odds Of Safety To Start Super Bowl
2. What Are The Odds Of A Safety In The Super Bowl

The gameplan that Todd Bowles implemented against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs for Super Bowl LV will be studied throughout the summer. Of course, the fact that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense was able to generate pressure on Mahomes as much as they did with just four rushers is a huge reason for their success, but there were elements in the secondary that are just as impressive.

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One of the wrinkles that Bowles brought to Super Bowl LV was a three-safety package in the secondary. When these two teams met back in Week 12, the Buccaneers did not align with a three-safety package on any of the Chiefs’ offensive plays. Yet on Sunday night, the Buccaneers used three safeties on 12 different snaps, leading to some quality results for the Tampa Bay defense.

For example, on a 3rd-and-8 early in the game, the Chiefs aligned with Mahomes in the shotgun and with one of football’s “impossible formations” on the field: Travis Kelce in a Y-Iso alignment on the left, and Tyreek Hill as the inside trips receiver to the right:

As you can see, the Buccaneers put their three safeties deep downfield before the snap, with rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. in the middle of the field. Between this alignment and the pressure look up front, Mahomes might think he will have a quick option either in the middle of the field after the snap, or to the bunch look on the right given that only two defenders are down over the three receivers, or even with Kelce in a potential single-coverage matchup.

But Bowles has an adjustment right at the snap:

Both Winfield and fellow safety Mike Edwards drop down underneath, while Jordan Whitehead rotates to the middle of the field. Edwards and Winfield now offer some help in the middle, which allows cornerbacks Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis to play with outside leverage and force receivers towards potential help. The impact of this is to give the Buccaneers a two-over-one look to Kelce, and a three-over-three look with safety help to the three-receiver side.

Even still, Mahomes almost makes the play:

The two-over-one look over Kelce takes away the tight end as an option, and with rotation of Winfield down towards the middle forces Mahomes to come off Hill’s deep over route. But Mecole Hardman gets behind the coverage for a potential shot play, but since that read is late in Mahomes’ progression, the throw comes late in the down and Davis has time to recover. The pass is slightly off-target, and the punt team comes on the field.

Late in the first quarter the Chiefs face another third down, this time a 3rd-and-11. Again you see the Buccaneers align with three deep safeties prior to the snap:

The end result is similar to the previous play, but how Bowles and the Buccaneers get there is different, which leads to some confusion for the offense:

Both Dean and Sean Murphy-Bunting blitz, with Dean coming from the outside and Murphy-Bunting coming from the slot. Linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White drop underneath, while the safeties again rotate on the back end. Whitehead replaces Murphy-Bunting in the slot, Edwards replaces Dean on the outside and Winfield drops to the deep post-safety alignment.

Here’s what happens:

Dean is unblocked, and with a free shot at Mahomes he flushes the quarterback into scramble-drill mode. The QB escapes the pressure but forces a throw deep downfield late in the down, that is nearly intercepted.

Odds Of Safety To Start Super Bowl

Late in the game the Buccaneers used this package to once more bring pressure, yet rotated to a Tampa 2 coverage behind the blitz from Murphy-Bunting on the outside:

The cornerback has a free path to Mahomes – as on the previous play – and the quarterback is forced to check the ball down and the pass falls incomplete. Even if Mahomes had time to throw, Tampa Bay’s coverage was in position to take away the downfield routes available to the quarterback.

What Are The Odds Of A Safety In The Super Bowl

Todd Bowles and his defense did a masterful job at slowing down the Chiefs offense on Sunday night. These three-safety packages allowed the Buccaneers and Bowles to accomplish a few different goals: First, they could be used to supplement the four-man pressure Tampa Bay was able to apply on the quarterback which changing up the rush lanes on the offensive linemen. Second, they were able to take away some of the quarterback’s initial reads, forcing him to make throws later in the down. And third, these designs made Mahomes have to go to options not named Kelce or Hill, which is usually a good thing for a team facing the Chiefs.